Week 11 Scouting Report: New York Giants

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RECENT HISTORY

11/25/12: L, 38-10

01/15/12: L, 37-20

12/04/11: W, 38-35

12/26/10: W, 45-17
Packers hold the lead, 35-21-2.

THIS SEASON

You can't say the Giants make it boring. Beginning the season with six straight losses, the Giants have now won three in a row against Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Oakland. They now only have one loss more than the Cowboys and Eagles, who are tied for first in the NFC East. If you're the type who like clumsy stock metaphors, then let me tell you the Giants stock is point straight UP.

WHO TO WATCH

Credit: USA Today

RT Justin Pugh - the Giants' first round pick this year has had his share of struggles but has strung together a few solid games. Pugh has the unenviable duty of blocking for the injured Andre Brown (more on him later), sluggish and injured Brandon Jacobs, and the just plain sluggish Peyton Hillis. But he's done his job very well in the last few weeks. He'll be going against Mike Neal for most of the game since Nick Perry is doubtful to play.

Credit: Getty

RB Andre Brown - last week against a pretty solid Raiders run defense, Brown got 115 yards off of 30 carries for an average of 3.8 yards per carry. That's nothing to write home about, especially considering if you remove his 17-yard long run from the equation it works out to 3.4 yards per carry on 29 runs. But, Brown was reliable in getting first downs and giving the Giants a time-of-possession advantage. If the Packers can shut down the Giants' new power running game, they have a good chance of forcing Eli Manning to make mistakes.

KEY MATCH-UPS

Scott Tolzien vs. Giants secondary

The Giants' secondary, like the rest of the team, has played much better the last few weeks than it has earlier in the season. In the last three games, they've allowed 157 passing yards per game, 0 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Mind you, they've played against Terrell Pryor, Matt Barkley, and Josh Freeman, but the jury is still out on whether Tolzien is any good. 

Eddie Lacy vs. Giants front 7 (or 8)

Unfortunately, the Giants have the 11th best rushing defense in the league and have shut down Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy in their last three games. Lacy will be running against a stacked box for the whole night, just as he did against the Eagles, so he faces his greatest challenge as a pro yet. 

Eli Manning vs. Packers secondary

This just might be the difference maker. Manning has been a bit of a hot mess this season, with 11 TDs and 16 INTs. Among quarterbacks with more than 200 attempts, he has the lowest completion percentage in the league. Once again, he's played better in the last few weeks, but the proof is in the pudding: Eli Manning has thrown the most interceptions in the league. Fortunately for him, he's going against a secondary that has the fewest interceptions in the league. Can Tramon Williams finally hold on to a ball? Will the safeties get distracted by the flashing lights? If they can get a couple of interceptions, it makes the offense's job a whole lot easier.

PREDICTIONS

• Scott Tolzien will throw more interceptions than touchdowns. Tolzien has a week of first-team reps under his belt, but I'm of the opinion that his "okay" performance against the Eagles was a fluke and had more to do with the terrible Eagles defense than Tolzien himself. The Giants have a good defense - one that has had Aaron Rodgers' number for quite some time. 
• The Packers will have more rushing TDs than passing. This one is a bit of a no-brainer. Tolzien (and many other QBs) struggles with reads and decision-making in the red zone. Mike McCarthy would much rather put the ball in the hands of one of his trusted backs.
• But Mason Crosby will have more points than anyone else. If you're a fantasy football kind of person, you should start Mason Crosby this week. A consequence of the Giants' excellent rushing defense and the Packers' starting a third-string QB will be red-zone stalls, a problem that has affected the Packers all season. Expect Crosby to have 3 or more field goals, assuming he hasn't fallen back into a slump.
• The Packers will finally get an interception. It just has to happen, right? The quarterback with the most dueling the defense with the least. 
• Clay Matthews will be the Packers' MVP. Clay indicated he'll probably be playing with a fiberglass cast instead of a comically giant club. Even if he doesn't fill his stat sheet with sacks, he'll provide much-needed pressure and force Eli to make mistakes (which, let's be honest, is not very hard).
• The rushing offense will be disappointing. Lacy will break tackles, and Starks might break a big one at some point, but the overall output of the Packers' running backs will be nothing to write home about. The Giants will stack the box on every down, and unlike the Eagles, they have real playmakers on defense. And you can bet that the message of the week in the Giants' locker room was "stop Eddie Lacy."
• The defense will step up - but the offense won't. Last week, the Packers defense got to be the disappointment while the Tolzien-led offense was surprisingly decent. This week, away, against a much better defense and a much worse offense, the Packers defense will get the chance to be the heroes while the offense will lay an egg.

Box score prediction

Packers 19, Giants 28

Scott Tolzien: 0 TD, 1 INT

Eli Manning: 2 TD, 1 INT

Eddie Lacy: 80 yards, 1 TD

Andre Brown: 60 yards, 0 TD