Week 11 Scouting Report: New York Giants

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RECENT HISTORY

11/25/12: L, 38-10

01/15/12: L, 37-20

12/04/11: W, 38-35

12/26/10: W, 45-17
Packers hold the lead, 35-21-2.

THIS SEASON

You can't say the Giants make it boring. Beginning the season with six straight losses, the Giants have now won three in a row against Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Oakland. They now only have one loss more than the Cowboys and Eagles, who are tied for first in the NFC East. If you're the type who like clumsy stock metaphors, then let me tell you the Giants stock is point straight UP.

WHO TO WATCH

Credit: USA Today

RT Justin Pugh - the Giants' first round pick this year has had his share of struggles but has strung together a few solid games. Pugh has the unenviable duty of blocking for the injured Andre Brown (more on him later), sluggish and injured Brandon Jacobs, and the just plain sluggish Peyton Hillis. But he's done his job very well in the last few weeks. He'll be going against Mike Neal for most of the game since Nick Perry is doubtful to play.

Credit: Getty

RB Andre Brown - last week against a pretty solid Raiders run defense, Brown got 115 yards off of 30 carries for an average of 3.8 yards per carry. That's nothing to write home about, especially considering if you remove his 17-yard long run from the equation it works out to 3.4 yards per carry on 29 runs. But, Brown was reliable in getting first downs and giving the Giants a time-of-possession advantage. If the Packers can shut down the Giants' new power running game, they have a good chance of forcing Eli Manning to make mistakes.

KEY MATCH-UPS

Scott Tolzien vs. Giants secondary

The Giants' secondary, like the rest of the team, has played much better the last few weeks than it has earlier in the season. In the last three games, they've allowed 157 passing yards per game, 0 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Mind you, they've played against Terrell Pryor, Matt Barkley, and Josh Freeman, but the jury is still out on whether Tolzien is any good. 

Eddie Lacy vs. Giants front 7 (or 8)

Unfortunately, the Giants have the 11th best rushing defense in the league and have shut down Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy in their last three games. Lacy will be running against a stacked box for the whole night, just as he did against the Eagles, so he faces his greatest challenge as a pro yet. 

Eli Manning vs. Packers secondary

This just might be the difference maker. Manning has been a bit of a hot mess this season, with 11 TDs and 16 INTs. Among quarterbacks with more than 200 attempts, he has the lowest completion percentage in the league. Once again, he's played better in the last few weeks, but the proof is in the pudding: Eli Manning has thrown the most interceptions in the league. Fortunately for him, he's going against a secondary that has the fewest interceptions in the league. Can Tramon Williams finally hold on to a ball? Will the safeties get distracted by the flashing lights? If they can get a couple of interceptions, it makes the offense's job a whole lot easier.

PREDICTIONS

• Scott Tolzien will throw more interceptions than touchdowns. Tolzien has a week of first-team reps under his belt, but I'm of the opinion that his "okay" performance against the Eagles was a fluke and had more to do with the terrible Eagles defense than Tolzien himself. The Giants have a good defense - one that has had Aaron Rodgers' number for quite some time. 
• The Packers will have more rushing TDs than passing. This one is a bit of a no-brainer. Tolzien (and many other QBs) struggles with reads and decision-making in the red zone. Mike McCarthy would much rather put the ball in the hands of one of his trusted backs.
• But Mason Crosby will have more points than anyone else. If you're a fantasy football kind of person, you should start Mason Crosby this week. A consequence of the Giants' excellent rushing defense and the Packers' starting a third-string QB will be red-zone stalls, a problem that has affected the Packers all season. Expect Crosby to have 3 or more field goals, assuming he hasn't fallen back into a slump.
• The Packers will finally get an interception. It just has to happen, right? The quarterback with the most dueling the defense with the least. 
• Clay Matthews will be the Packers' MVP. Clay indicated he'll probably be playing with a fiberglass cast instead of a comically giant club. Even if he doesn't fill his stat sheet with sacks, he'll provide much-needed pressure and force Eli to make mistakes (which, let's be honest, is not very hard).
• The rushing offense will be disappointing. Lacy will break tackles, and Starks might break a big one at some point, but the overall output of the Packers' running backs will be nothing to write home about. The Giants will stack the box on every down, and unlike the Eagles, they have real playmakers on defense. And you can bet that the message of the week in the Giants' locker room was "stop Eddie Lacy."
• The defense will step up - but the offense won't. Last week, the Packers defense got to be the disappointment while the Tolzien-led offense was surprisingly decent. This week, away, against a much better defense and a much worse offense, the Packers defense will get the chance to be the heroes while the offense will lay an egg.

Box score prediction

Packers 19, Giants 28

Scott Tolzien: 0 TD, 1 INT

Eli Manning: 2 TD, 1 INT

Eddie Lacy: 80 yards, 1 TD

Andre Brown: 60 yards, 0 TD

For Your Entertainment: The Lord of the Slings

The Packers Must Draft a QB

It's early. Very, very early. There are still 7 regular season games to be played and maybe the playoffs if the Packers get lucky. I know that the NFL Draft isn't for another 6 months. But this is something that deserves to be addressed and considered well ahead of time.

Ted Thompson built a strong roster that withstood significant injuries to nearly every unit on both sides of the field, but unfortunately the biggest weakness in his roster this year has been officially exposed - backup quarterback.

The Packers need to draft a quarterback in the 2014 Draft, and I don't mean another seventh rounder from the University of Southern Wyoming. I mean a Day 2 kind of guy, who has a ceiling higher than the one in Being John Malkovich.

No offense to Scott Tolzien, who was pretty serviceable without any preparation, but the Packers need a guy who has the potential to flourish and even excel as a starter in their system. They need a young, talented, raw prospect who can be to Rodgers what Rodgers was to Favre (without the whole taking his job part). Tolzien is not a long-term solution.

As we've seen this season, roster depth is perhaps more important to success in today's game than even the talent of your starters. You need to have redundancies. There are some schools of thought in NFL general managing that you should draft a quarterback at least every few years. Ron Wolf, the former Packers GM, made Green Bay known for its quarterback school, producing quality players under the tutelage of the coaching staff and Brett Favre. Well, it's time to reinstate the school - it just might save us from missing the playoffs some year down the road.

Even if the potential QB never takes the field as a starter for the Packers (and let's hope that's true), in this QB-hungry league, a young stud with a few years learning from Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy would generate a huge amount of trade interest. It's in the Packers' long-term best interest to keep a talented young player in camp to develop.

Here are some potential candidates that would work well in the Packers system and should be available somewhere in rounds 2 to 4, in order of projected draft position, followed by their current season stats:

Zach Mettenberger, LSU (167/254 - 65.7%, 2733 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT)
Derek Carr, Fresno State (323/465 - 69.5%, 3421 yards, 32 TD, 4 INT)
Aaron Murray, Georgia (174/275 - 63.3%, 2477 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT)
A.J. McCarron, Alabama (159/229 - 69.4%, 2041 yards, 19 TD, 3 INT)
David Fales, San Jose State (205/343 - 59.8%, 2876 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT)

AJ McCarron will be undervalued in this draft due to his perception of being a "system quarterback" at Alabama. But the numbers don't like - nearly 70% completion, almost no interceptions, and he's rarely lost a game. Nonetheless, all of these players have NFL-calibre talent and could thrive under Rodgers' mentorship.

It's early in the season still, as the Packers prepare their 3rd starting QB in 3 games, it might be just the right time to start thinking about the draft.

Week 10 Unit Grades

QB Scott Tolzien (16) stands in the pocket. Photo credit: packersnews.com

QUARTERBACKS: B
Scott Tolzien (24 for 39, 280 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) made a few bad mistakes, but considering the guy was on the practice squad just last week, he exceeded expectations. Seneca Wallace looked serviceable but unremarkable in his one drive early in the game, so it makes complete sense why Mike McCarthy wasted no time in appointing Tolzien the starter for next week.

RUNNING BACKS: D
Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and John Kuhn ran for 80 yards on 29 attempts, good for an absolutely pedestrian 2.8 yards per carry. Lacy broke tackles early on but struggled after Evan Dietrich-Smith and Don Barclay went out in the second half. The Eagles were loading up the box with 8 or 9 players on nearly every down, but the running backs need to play better to give the Packers any chance at winning without Aaron Rodgers.

WIDE RECEIVERS: A
The unit made very few mistakes today, helping Scott Tolzien out with a few great catches and runs. Jarrett Boykin looks more and more like the second coming of Donald Driver. Jordy Nelson had a likely touchdown catch ruled incomplete (mistakenly, if you ask me), and James Jones showed a rare lapse in footwork when he couldn't get both feet inbounds on another possible touchdown reception.

TIGHT ENDS: B+
Brandon Bostick had his first big career game with 42 yards and a TD on 3 receptions, likely capitalizing on his familiarity with Tolzien from practices. Andrew Quarless and Ryan Taylor caught a ball each. The tight ends are trying to fill the gap left by Jermichael Finley, and the Packers hope Bostick, who might be their best receiving tight end, can continue to make progress.

OFFENSIVE LINE: D
Marshall Newhouse is bad. Real bad. If he was looking to redeem himself in today's game, he failed quite spectacularly and only further ensured his status as a career backup. TJ Lang filled in surprisingly well at center, though once EDS and Barclay went down, the whole unit really collapsed in run blocking.

DEFENSIVE LINE: C+
Datone Jones had his first big game in the NFL with 2 sacks, 2 tackles for losses, and 2 QB hits. Johnny Jolly made a few plays in the running game as well. Mike Daniels joined Tramon Williams on a sack. The line did well stopping inside runs and managed to get some pressure on the quarterback despite dismal linebacker play. Still, once Jolly went down, the unit fell apart, leading to big questions about depth.

LINEBACKERS: F
AJ Hawk had a tackle for a loss. That's just about the only thing the linebackers did the entire game, totaling 0 sacks and 0 QB hits as a unit. Even worse, they allowed LeSean McCoy to constantly get the edge, running for 155 yards total and mostly outside the tackles. Clay Matthews is playing with a club, but he went against a backup left tackle for most of the game and made nothing happen. The linebackers need to get pressure on the quarterback to help cover the mediocrity of the DBs.

SAFETIES: F
Rivaling the week 1 game against the 49ers in terms of total ineptness, the safeties were just awful tonight. The difference between week 1 and week 10 is Morgan Burnett - but despite his pay raise over the summer, Burnett has played poorly in pass and run defense. MD Jennings is bad, but I think we all knew that. Perhaps the most worrisome part of the performance tonight was that most of the mistakes made were not technical but mental - being unaware of the ball, yourself, and your teammates. Those are hard things to fix by coaching. McCarthy alluded to some big changes this week, so don't be surprised if rookie Chris Banjo gets the start opposite Burnett. At this point, they couldn't get much worse.

CORNERBACKS: F
Nick Foles had all day to throw, but the cornerbacks did not take advantage of several bad passes he made. Tramon Williams - who I will remind you is the third highest paid player on this team - has seriously, seriously regressed and might even have his starting spot questioned. Just about everyone had a missed tackle. There were no interceptions and no passes defended. The Packers now have 3 interceptions in 9 games, putting them on pace for a historically low 5 in the season. Next week, they play turnover machine Eli Manning. If they can't get any interceptions at MetLife, the team might find themselves 5-5 and solidly outside the playoff picture.

SPECIAL TEAMS: C
A pair of missed field goals by Mason Crosby was a fun new wrinkle to add to this season, but the generally bad field position was an all-too-familiar curse.  Micah Hyde fumbled a kickoff but fortunately recovered it in the endzone. Kicking coverage was good, and the Eagles did not return either of Tim Masthay's punts.

COACHING: F
I'm not on the "fire Dom Capers" wagon (yet). But I am solidly on the "Mike McCarthy is not a good playcaller" wagon. The amount of short passes Scott Tolzien was made to throw on 3rd and short? Unacceptable when you have Eddie Lacy on your roster. Speaking of that - I wrote in an article earlier this week that to succeed, the coaches needed to cycle Lacy, Starks, and Franklin more to keep them healthy and effective. Today, Lacy had 24 carries and Starks had 4, putting Lacy at 75 carries in the last three games. He averaged 14 carries per game his final year at Alabama, so you'd think the coaches might be slightly worried about overworking him. Some may criticize Capers for being inflexible, but an objective observer of the game would see through that - the Packers defense was simply getting outplayed. Their blitzing was ineffective, they couldn't get pressure without blitzing, and they couldn't maintain coverage even when dropping seven.

I said I wasn't in favor of firing Dom Capers, but I am in favor of other staff and personnel changes - including the firing of Joe Whitt, the cornerbacks coach who has managed an inconsistent and, at times, downright terrible defensive unit for far too long. I'm also in favor of benching M.D. Jennings - who should have never started in the first place - for rookie Chris Banjo, who has much more upside.

Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft Prospects

There's only a few weeks left of regular season college football. That means that the athletes who intend to declare for the 2014 NFL Draft have only a few more in-game opportunities to make a statement to scouts and general managers.

While the Packers' draft position could vary wildly depending on the length of Aaron Rodgers' absence, it's reasonable to assume the Packers will be drafting in the later half of the first round. With that assumption, here are a handful of prospects (and games) who might just be wearing green and gold next year.

Credit: wralsportsfan.com

TE Eric Ebron, UNC
6'4, 245 pounds, Junior

By far the most popular mock draft prediction among bloggers and analysts, the Tarheel tight end isn't as tall or big as his fellow elite TE prospects like Washington's Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He is, however, the best receiver of the group, and the best man to replace Jermichael Finley, who is unlikely to return to Green Bay.

Ebron is very fast and has the rare ability to make big plays down the field, much like Jimmy Graham. He's a solid blocker too, although perhaps not as effective in the NFL as some of his larger peers would be. Ebron has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise struggling UNC team, as the favorite receiver of QB Bryn Renner.

WHAT TO WATCH: Virginia @ UNC, November 9th, 11:30am (ESPN3)

Credit: Minneapolis Star Tribune

DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota
6'6, 311 pounds, RS Senior

The defensive line is probably the biggest question mark heading into the 2014 season. As a unit, it's performed brilliantly this season, but several key players (BJ Raji, Johnny Jolly, and Ryan Pickett) will be heading to free agency. It's possible that Ted Thompson may draft a defensive lineman two years in a row.

Hageman will probably be the best option unless the Packers have a draft spot earlier than expected (Notre Dame's Louis Nix would be the best bet at replacing BJ Raji). He'd play defensive end in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense. Hageman's height and quickness make for a potent combination. He's made his presence known by swatting down passes and getting to the quarterback. He has the potential to be a J.J. Watt-type player for the Packers.

WHAT TO WATCH: Wisconsin @ Minnesota, November 23rd.

Credit: USAToday

S HaHa Clinton-Dix, Alabama
6'1, 208 pounds, Junior

Clinton-Dix hasn't had a very good season. He was suspended for a couple of games for taking a loan from an Alabama assistant, which might lower his draft stock. Nonetheless, he's the surefire top safety prospect of the class and just might be available in the middle of the first round. It's become increasingly obvious that the biggest gap on the Packers' roster is at safety opposite Morgan Burnett. Clinton-Dix would give the Packers a formidable pair of safeties and might help rescue their secondary from mediocrity.

WHAT TO WATCH: Alabama @ LSU, November 9th, 7:00pm (CBS)

Credit: FOX Sports

WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
6'3, 205 pounds, Senior

He's never done it, but there's a first time for everyone. With some drastic roster shifts being threatened in the future due to the big extensions of Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, the Packers' wide receiver group will be unable to keep all of its talent in the coming years. Rodgers might be able to turn nobodies into stars, but it's downright foolish to pay a quarterback $20 million a year and then limit his options at receivers. This could be the first time Ted Thompson drafts a first round wide receiver.

Jordan Matthews might just be the best receiver in this class, but he doesn't have the hype of Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins because he doesn't have Johnny Manziel or Tajh Boyd throwing to him. That's just fine for the Packers, as he'll likely be available even if they make the playoffs this year. If the Packers can't retain Jordy Nelson and/or James Jones, Matthews would be a fine replacement at WR1 or WR2 and could allow Randall Cobb to remain in the slot where his strengths lie.

WHAT TO WATCH: Vanderbilt @ Florida, November 9th, 11:00am (ESPN3)

5 Things the Packers Must Do to Make the Playoffs

Packers backup QB Seneca Wallace (9) throws a pass Monday against the Bears

When I was driving up to Green Bay this past Monday, I was talking to my Dad about our expectations for the game. We both predicted blowouts of varying magnitudes. I had the sense to add a caveat to mine: "I think we win by 3 touchdowns, unless something horrible goes wrong like Rodgers getting hurt."

Now Packers fans, used to elite and durable quarterback play through the last two decades, are left in the unenviable position that many other teams in the NFL find themselves in. Their success or failure this season depends largely on how well a below-average quarterback plays. And, all of the sudden, with their loss against the Bears, they find themselves in the middle of the NFC North standings and, if the season were to end today, out of playoff contention.

All is not lost, however. There is a roadmap to January for the Packers, even if Aaron Rodgers is out for 6 weeks. Here's what the Packers must do.

1. Treat the running backs like gold. 

The Packers have the #3 rushing offense in yards per game. This is now their offensive identity without Rodgers. Packers RB coach Alex van Pelt recently said that RB Eddie Lacy could carry the ball 35 times if needed. I'm sure that's true, but the Packers must rotate their running backs more than they have previously this season. Lacy getting 35 carries in a game is inviting a serious injury. Starks and Franklin have both had success this year. There's no reason Lacy needs to be the only one carrying the load.

2. Build confidence in Seneca Wallace. 

Even without WR Randall Cobb and TE Jermichael Finley, Wallace will have quality receivers running routes. He'll be seeing single-high safety looks for most of the games in which he's playing, so allowing Wallace to gain confidence through short and easy passes is crucial. Here's a reason to be optimistic as well: on Monday night against the Bears, Wallace had a 102.7 passer rating when using play-action. See why keeping the running backs healthy is important?

3. Don't be stubborn. 

It's a standard meaningless platitude from coaching staffs that no injury changes their game plan. While being stalwart and confident have their benefits, the fact of the matter is that the Packers need to be extraordinarily flexible and adaptive to get out of this season alive. Fortunately, McCarthy and company have demonstrated their ability to overcome injuries, whether it be through shuffling wide receiver positions or using creative blitz packages on defense. This must continue. There's a lot of talk among fans about whether or not Seneca Wallace (or whomever they want to come and rescue this season - Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Brett Favre, or Bart Starr) can run our offense successfully. This is really missing the point - the offense is dead, or at least in a coma, as long as Aaron Rodgers is gone. To win, the Packers need to reinvent themselves for however long Rodgers is out.

4. Execute perfectly. 

A cliché, I know, but it's true now more than ever. There is no margin for error on this season anymore. This past Monday's game against the Bear must be the last game the Packers almost win, because they need every win they can scrape together to even give Rodgers a chance at vaulting the team into the playoffs when he returns.

5. Create turnovers. 

The last and perhaps the most obvious of all (besides, you know, winning games), the Packers are -3 in turnover differential on the year. They're tied for last in the league in interceptions. Yeah, okay, you've heard all of the alarming numbers already. They just confirm what we all know from watching the secondary play. The DBs are not capitalizing on opportunities, and it's allowing awful quarterbacks look like All-Pros. We've been able to win despite this because of excellent defensive line play and an offense that has dominated time of possession. But now, the Packers need interceptions and fumbles instead of punts. Now, having the ball at their own 10 is less an opportunity for a long TD drive and more a chance for a 3-and-out. Hopefully with Clay Matthews (Megaman hand or not) and Nick Perry returning, opposing QBs will have less time to make reads, but when they make poor decisions, there need to be consequences from Shields and company.